Prescott, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

561
FXUS65 KFGZ 150040
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
540 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching storm system brings gusty winds for
Friday and much colder temperatures for the weekend. There is a
chance of rain and snow showers Saturday in northwest Arizona, and
Sunday in far eastern Arizona. More cold and unsettled weather is
possible early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Sunny and warm conditions are being observed across
northern Arizona this afternoon. Temperatures are running 5-10
degrees warmer than normal for mid November. By tonight, not
expecting temperatures to be quite as cold as recent nights as an
approaching low pressure system will cause winds aloft to
increase. This will also keep surface winds from going calm for
most areas, keeping things mixed and temperatures up a bit. On
Friday, the southern end of the west coast trough continues to
approach. With daytime mixing, expect surface winds to become
strong and gusty from the southwest. Current forecasts indicate
the highest gusts from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
northward. We issued a Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM MST for
this area, expecting widespread gusts 40-50 mph with a few gusts
close to 55 mph just downstream from the rim and White Mtns. These
higher gusts may impact Doney Park, Winona, Show Low, Taylor,
Snowflake, Vernon, and Springerville. Winds should die down
shortly after sunset but may continue through the evening for the
wind prone areas near the White Mtns. Most areas will see highs on
Friday drop by 10-15 degrees compared to today, with eastern AZ
only dropping around 5 degrees.

Friday night through Sunday - good model agreement with the track
of the low as it dives southward along the CA/AZ line into
northern Baja through Saturday, and then east-northeastward into
SE AZ on Sunday. Initially, there will be an increase in low level
moisture late Friday night through Saturday afternoon which could
bring some low clouds and a few rain/snow showers from around
Flagstaff northwestward. Highs on Saturday will also be 10-15
degrees colder than normal for mid November. On Sunday, with the
latest forecast tracks taking the low farther east, the main
chance of precipitation is over the southern half of Navajo and
Apache counties. Forecast precipitation amounts remain light,
generally 0.05" to 0.15", translating to a trace to 1" of snow
above about 7000 feet and perhaps 2" for the White Mountain peaks.

Monday through Wednesday - the forecast is considerably more
uncertain during this period. While most model and ensemble
members indicate a wave passing through the region late Monday
through Tuesday, many of the EC members are far more amplified
with a stronger low depicted. Around 40% of all ensemble members
show this, again mostly EC members. Most GEFS/GEPS members are
weaker with the wave with much less of an effect on our region.
Being this far out, our forecasts use a blended approach, so
while we will indicate breezy and cold conditions, our snow and
low elevation rain chances are only at 20-30% at this time from
Monday night into Tuesday. Stay tuned as later adjustments to the
forecast are likely.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 15/00Z through Saturday 16/00Z...VFR conditions
will prevail. Winds aloft will increase overnight with wind shear
developing after 06Z at KFLG, KGCN, and KINW. Surface winds remaining
in the 10-15 kt range overnight, with higher gusts to 25 kts
along and just north of terrain features. Surface winds increase
after daybreak Friday, becoming SW 20-30 kts gusting 30-40 kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 16/00Z through Monday 18/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are expected. A cold front passage Friday night
through Saturday night will bring a 10-30% chance for -SHRA/-SHSN
from KFLG north and west, with a chance for MVFR conditions at
higher terrain sites. SW winds 20-30 kts with gusts up to 40 kts
through 03Z Saturday before decreasing to 5-15 kts. Surface winds
shift to N/NE after 00Z Sun at 5-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Saturday...South to
southwest winds 10-20 mph continue through sunset, but do
not completely decouple overnight as a low pressure system
approaches. Southwest winds become stronger on Friday with
widespread gusts of 35 to 50 mph. Colder on Friday but remaining dry
with Min RH below 15% in eastern Arizona. Isolated rain/snow showers
Saturday, with southwest wind 10-20 mph.

Sunday through Tuesday...Below normal temperatures continue.
Isolated rain/snow showers over east central Arizona Sunday with
another low chance area-wide Monday night into Tuesday. Winds
at 10 to 20 mph are anticipated each afternoon, north-northeasterly
on Sunday, southwesterly on Monday, and northwesterly Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for AZZ006-007-
009>017-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff