Prescott, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

501
FXUS65 KFGZ 160504
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1004 PM MST Fri May 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Windy and cooler weather will move in over the
weekend. Southwest winds peak on Sunday with areas of critical
fire weather conditions likely. The pattern remains unsettled
heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A series of shortwave troughs will brush Arizona
into next week delivering breezy to windy conditions at times
along with cooler daytime temperatures. Critical fire weather
conditions are expected for portions of northern Arizona over the
weekend.

Over the weekend...The strongest in the series of shortwave
troughs will move across northern Arizona. The first will be well
timed for daytime Saturday with the second shortwave Sunday
afternoon and night. The main impact of these systems will be a
wide area of southwest winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph on
Saturday then increasing to 15-30 mph gusting to 40-50 mph on
Sunday. The higher wind/gust values in the ranges shown will
primarily be located from the Mogollon Rim northward. In
addition, afternoon relative humidity values will range from
10-20% across the area. The combination of wind and dry conditions
will result in near-critical to critical fire weather conditions
across northern Arizona. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for potions of the area both Saturday and Sunday. The
system will be mainly dry but a few stray light showers near the
Arizona/Utah border can`t be ruled out on Sunday.

For Monday and Tuesday...A weaker pair of shortwave troughs will
brush the area, one by late Monday and another late Tuesday. The
main impact of these two systems will be to keep daytime
temperatures a bit below normal. Daytime west to southwest breezes
will continue but much reduced compared to the weekend.

From Wednesday onward...It appears the last in the series of
shortwave troughs will head eastward to be replaced by a weak high
pressure system. At this time the end of next week is set to see
warming daytime temperatures and a continuation of the usual
afternoon breezes.


&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 16/06Z through Sunday 17/06Z...VFR conditions.
Winds S/SW 5-10 kts overnight, increasing to 15-20 kts with gusts 25-
35 kts after 16Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 17/06Z through Tuesday 19/06Z...VFR conditions,
outside of brief periods of MVFR in ISO -SHRA/-SHSN mainly north of
a KGCN-KRQE line 00Z-18Z Monday. Slight chance for MVFR CIGS over
the higher terrain Monday morning. Winds S/SW 20-25 kts with gusts
35-40 kts on Sunday, becoming SW-NW 10-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts
on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Dry with temperatures 5-10
degrees above average Saturday, but cooling down close to average on
Sunday.  A slight chance of showers is possible Sunday night into
early Monday morning along the Arizona/Utah border. Winds SW 15-25
mph, gusts 35-40 mph on Saturday, increasing to SW 20-30 mph, gusts
40-45 mph on Sunday. Minimum RH values 10-20% Saturday, 10-25%
Sunday. Areas of critical fire weather conditions are forecast for
both Saturday and Sunday afternoons and Red Flag Warnings have been
issued for those locations.

Monday through Wednesday.... Temperatures remain cool on Monday and
Tuesday at 5 to 10 degrees below average before recovering closer to
average on Wednesday. Winds W-NE 10-20 mph, gusts 30-35 mph on
Monday, SW-W 10-20 mph on Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum RH values
10-20% Monday, 8-15% Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ Sunday for AZZ104>106-109>114-116-117-139-140.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ Saturday for AZZ107>109-112>116-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff