Prescott, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

344
FXUS65 KFGZ 280522
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1022 PM MST Sun Jul 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and breezy conditions will continue today. On
Monday, thunderstorm chances will return to the White Mountains,
spreading north and west through the week. Excessive Heat
continues in the Grand Canyon through Wednesday. Temperatures will
begin to decrease Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Arizona remains under a dry southwesterly flow
today, sandwiched between high pressure over the central/southern
U.S. and a weak trough stretched across the west coast. The
influence of this persistent trough has been detrimental to the
monsoon circulation this year, and is responsible for this current
dry and breezy stretch of weather.

For the week ahead, the trough weakens allowing the large high
pressure circulation to gradually build westward over Arizona. A
weak inverted trough on the southern periphery of the high is
forecast to rotate through southern Arizona early this week, and
this is what helps to draw increasing moisture northward. Just how
much and how far north remains the question. Latest NBM (National
Blend of Models) guidance points toward a gradual increase in
moisture and thunderstorm chances from Monday onward, but
confidence still remains moderate at best. The GFS and GEFS are
still more optimistic in the moisture return, but continue to
show about half of the ensemble members favoring drier
conditions. Regardless, we will see a gradual increase in
humidity, clouds, and chances for showers and thunderstorms
starting Monday in the White Mountains and spreading north/west
each day. Even in the more optimistic moisture solutions, a low to
moderate grade monsoon pattern would be in store.

Heat will continue to be the primary concern in the short term as
temperatures climb to well above average by Monday. Temperatures
in the lower Grand Canyon are forecast to exceed 110F, and an
Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect today through Wednesday. As
moisture and cloud cover increase, Wednesday should begin a
downward trend in temperatures through the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 28/06Z through Tuesday 29/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. MVFR conditions possible from FU north of KGCN to KPGA.
Daytime sfc winds S-SW10-20g25kts, otherwise light.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 29/06Z through Thursday 31/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA each afternoon, primarily east of the
I-17 corridor. SHRA/TSRA most NMRS INVOF the White Mtns. Stronger
storms may produce brief MVFR conditions. MVFR conditions possible
in FU north of KGCN to KPGA. Daytime sfc winds S-SW10-20g25kts.
Otherwise light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Chances for showers/storms each
afternoon, primarily across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. Winds are west through southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts
20 to 25 mph each afternoon, but gusty/erratic winds are possible
near storms. Minimum RH is 10 to 20 percent on Monday then 10 to 30
percent on Tuesday, highest towards the White Mountains.

Wednesday through Friday...Daily scattered showers/storms, with
precipitation chances expanding north each day. Winds are southwest
through west 10 to 20 mph gusting 20 to 25 mph, but gusty/erratic
winds are possible near storms. Minimum RH is between 10 to 30
percent on Wednesday, then 15 to 35 percent on Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff